POSITIVE TRENDS IN BELARUS ECONOMY KEY BRANCHES CONTINUE IN JANUARY-OCTOBER

Positive manufacturing and investment trends in key branches of the Belarusian economy continued in January-October 2006.

In January-October the gross domestic product growth rate totalled 109.7 per cent as against the corresponding period of last while the annual target makes 107-108.5 per cent. In the period the industry-added value in the GDP reached 27.9 per cent, agriculture — 8.2 per cent, civil engineering — 7.6 per cent, transport and communications — 9 per cent, trade and public catering — 10.4 per cent. In January-September the GDP energy intensity shrank by 1.7 per cent in comparison with the same period of last year (annual forecast — 6-7 per cent down).

Over the ten months of 2006 the industry’s volume index made 112.2 per cent as against the respective period of last year (the annual forecast — 106.5-108 per cent). The consumer goods production increased by 10.7 per cent (the forecast — 8-9 per cent), foods production — 12.2 per cent up, non-foods production — 9.6 per cent up.

As far as financial performance figures of the real economy sector are concerned, the profitability of sold goods and services totalled 13.9 per cent in January-September 2006 (14.4 per cent in January-September 2005), sales profitability — 8.3 per cent (8.7 per cent). The same parameters of Belarusian industrial companies totalled 15.8 per cent and 11.4 per cent respectively.

In January-October the overall agricultural output increased by 3.7 per cent up on January-October 2005 (the annual forecast — 6-8 per cent). Over the ten months the output of agricultural companies and peasant (farmer) steads increased by 6.4 per cent up on the respective period of last year.

In January-October Belarus fixed-capital investments increased by 33.2 per cent up on the corresponding period of last year (the annual forecast — 13-14 per cent). Over the ten months investments spent to buy machines, equipment, transport vehicles increased by 48.2 per cent, the share of the expenses in the overall investment volume reached 46.6 per cent. Investments in manufacturing facilities increased by 39.5 per cent.

In January-October 2006 housing construction accounted for 18.1 per cent of the overall investment volume or 121.2 per cent as against the respective period of last year. Over the ten months of 2006 Belarus commissioned 3.329 million square meters of residential premises, including 1.432 million square meters in rural areas and small towns. The housing commissioning increased by 339,000 square meters or 11.4 per cent in comparison with the same period of 2006.

The source noted, in January-September 2006 Belarus foreign trade showed positive trends and largely exceeded forecasts. According to the balance of payments method the foreign trade in goods and services increased by 31.1 per cent up on January-September 2005 (the annual forecast — 8.3-9.3 per cent). The export increased by 25.8 per cent (the annual forecast — 8.5-9.5 per cent), import — 36.7 per cent (8-9 per cent). Over the first nine months of the year the foreign trade deficit amounted to USD627.7 million, with the foreign trade in goods deficit as high as minus USD1,219.9 million, the foreign trade in services surplus — plus USD592.2 million.

The source also noted, this year’s stable economic growth contributed to preserving the outstripping individuals’ income growth. In January-September 2006 the real value of cash income of individuals (incomes corrected using the consumer price index) increased by 17.3 per cent up on the respective period of last year, with the forecasts as high as 7-8.5 per cent. In January-September 2006 cash income per capita made Br386,800 monthly.

In January-September the nominal monthly gross payroll increased by 27.6 per cent up on the respective period of last year (the annual forecast — 16.7-19.9 per cent) to reach Br576,700, including Br606,400 (an equivalent of USD283) in September. Salaries of state budget sphere personnel increased by 26.5 per cent to Br526,500, including Br530,300 (USD247.5) in September. The real monthly gross payroll has increased by 19.1 per cent up on January-September 2005.

The Belarusian pension system has been stable. In January-October 2006 the average monthly age pensions increased by 27.7 per cent (the annual forecast — 16.5-19.5 per cent) to make Br252,500, including Br260,500 in October. The real age pensions increased by 19.3 per cent up on January-October 2005. The average minimal age pensions increased by 23.1 per cent to reach Br149,400, including Br155,000 in October.

As of November 1, the registered unemployment level amounted to 1.2 per cent of the economically active population.

According to the economy ministry, in January-October 2006 the growing individuals’ incomes and falling inflation rate stimulated consumption. On the Belarusian consumer market the retail trade turnover, including public catering, grew by 17.6 per cent up on the corresponding period of 2005, with the annual forecast as high as 9-10.5 per cent.

In January-October 2006 the Consumer Price Index for goods and services amounted to 3.8 per cent or 0.4 per cent on the average monthly, which is lower than the annual forecast (0.6-0.7 per cent monthly).

Over the ten months 13 out of 16 most important national social and economic development targets have been reached. In January-September the national economy failed to reach the GDP energy intensity and import targets. Besides, in January-October 2006 the agricultural output was below the forecasts.

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